Projected changes in extreme precipitation over eastern Asia in the 21st century

Abstract

AbstractThis study used a multi‐model ensemble (MME) simulation to project changes in extreme precipitation (EP) over the next century based on four relevant indexes (R95P, FRE, total precipitation [PRCPTOT] and PPER) during the monsoon period (May–September) over eastern Asia. The ensemble model was built from three global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase 5. The results indicate that the MME results can reproduce observations of the spatial distribution characteristics of EP indexes in eastern Asia. Compared with the reference period of 1986–2005, the EP (R95P), PRCPTOT and the ratio of EP to PRCPTOT (PPER) in eastern Asia will increase during the monsoon period under the three emission scenarios in three durations (the early period: 2020–2039, middle period: 2050–2069 and late period: 2080–2099) throughout the 21st century. This feature is especially strong in southeast China and the Malay Islands. Meanwhile, the variation in the frequency of EP events (FRE) has prominent regional differences, including a decrease in the Yellow River Basin and the Indochina Peninsula and an increase in southeast China. All projected increasing were most significant under high emissions (RCP8.5). This study also suggests that EP would not generally increase in frequency but rather in intensity. With an increase in emissions concentration, the temperature threshold at which EP occurs is likely to rise, so the EP might need triggered by the higher temperatures.