Projected changes in compound dry-hot events in South Asia

Abstract

South Asia is one of the hotspot regions for extreme weather and climate events such as heatwaves, droughts, and extreme precipitation. This work aims to present a comprehensive analysis of the future changes (2071-2100) in the frequency and duration of compound dry-hot extremes in South Asia. Given the current gap in specific data for such compound events in this region, our approach involves utilizing state-of-the-art regional climate models from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) project embedded in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework. The focus will be on understanding the interplay between dry and hot days conditions, and how their concurrent occurrence may exacerbate environmental and socio-economic challenges. We will analyze an ensemble of regional climate projections to identify potential trends in these compound events by the end of the 21st century. The outcomes of this study are expected to provide valuable insights into the evolving nature of compound climate extremes in South Asia, thereby informing policy and adaptation strategies for enhanced regional resilience.