Projected changes in clear-sky erythemal and vitamin D effective UV doses for Europe over the period 2006 to 2100

Abstract

The benefits and the harmful effects of solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure have been well discussed. Most studies show concern for the solar overexposure in the tropics and low latitude sites and its scarcity at higher latitudes. Both cases are of concern, the first for diseases such as skin cancer and the second for the lack of vitamin D production in the skin. In this study, we evaluate the influence of climate change scenarios on the total ozone content (TOC) and typical aerosol properties, such as the optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA), over Europe. From these parameters, we estimate the erythemal and the vitamin D effective UVR doses from 2006 to 2100. Our results indicate a small reduction of the UVR daily doses caused by the ozone layer recovery and partially compensated by an AOD diminution through this century. The attenuation will be larger at high latitudes, during the springtime and for more polluted scenarios during this century. However, this diminution should not be sufficient to provide a protection condition for erythema. On the other hand, at higher latitudes, it possibly contributes to a relevant increase in the exposure time necessary for the synthesis of vitamin D, mainly during autumn and spring seasons.