Projected changes in air temperature, precipitation and aridity in Serbia in the 21st century

Abstract

AbstractIn this study, the projected changes of the average monthly and annual air temperatures, precipitation amounts and De Martonne aridity index in Serbia in the 21st century are examined. For that purpose, the spatial distribution of air temperature and precipitation amount is statistically modelled using data of 64 climatologic stations and 421 precipitation stations for the period 1976–2005 using multiple linear regression. The De Martonne aridity index is calculated from the spatially distributed data. In order to obtain regional averages and variability, we divide Serbia into three subdomains: the western zone (the Dinarides), eastern mountainous (Carpathian‐Balkan) zone and the terrains with altitudes lower than 500 m a.s.l. (Lowland). As a second step, the members of the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) for Europe (EURO‐CORDEX) are evaluated in terms of near‐surface air temperature and precipitation for Serbia. By comparing respective values for the period 1976–2005 with future periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, we derive the climate change signal for near‐surface air temperature, precipitation and the De Martonne index for both scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Hereby, the ensemble averages are calculated as weighted averages using the inverse standardized Euclidean distance by comparing observation and model results for near‐surface air temperature and precipitation as a weight. We find for the period 2071–2050 that most ensemble members predict a statistically significant increase in monthly and annual near‐surface air temperature in both scenarios in all three subdomains, and a statistically significant decrease in the yearly De Martonne index in the RCP8.5 scenario in the Carpathian‐Balkan and Dinarides. For the last decades of the 21st century, our findings indicate much higher temperatures and increased risks of drought for the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to both the observations from 1976 to 2005 and the RCP 4.5 scenario.