Abstract
The contribution of climate change to shifts in a species’ geographic distribution is a critical and often unresolved ecological question. Climate change in Antarctica is asymmetric, with cooling in parts of the continent and warming along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). The Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) is a circumpolar meso-predator exposed to the full range of Antarctic climate and is undergoing dramatic population shifts coincident with climate change. We used true presence-absence data on Adélie penguin breeding colonies to estimate past and future changes in habitat suitability during the chick-rearing period based on historic satellite observations and future climate model projections. During the contemporary period, declining Adélie penguin populations experienced more years with warm sea surface temperature compared to populations that are increasing. Based on this relationship, we project that one-third of current Adélie penguin colonies, representing ~20% of their current population, may be in decline by 2060. However, climate model projections suggest refugia may exist in continental Antarctica beyond 2099, buffering species-wide declines. Climate change impacts on penguins in the Antarctic will likely be highly site specific based on regional climate trends, and a southward contraction in the range of Adélie penguins is likely over the next century.
Highlights
The contribution of climate change to shifts in a species’ geographic distribution is a critical and often unresolved ecological question
Marguerite Bay appears to be on a slower warming trajectory compared to the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) (Fig. 2a), which is evident in the high-resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)-CM2.6 projections (Supplemental Fig. 9)
While both the WAP and Ross Sea regions have been characterized by high chick-rearing habitat suitability (CRHS) in the recent past (Fig. 2b), our model projects a substantial decrease in CRHS along the WAP and an increase in CRHS in the Ross Sea over the century (Fig. 2c)
Summary
The contribution of climate change to shifts in a species’ geographic distribution is a critical and often unresolved ecological question. Climate change in Antarctica is asymmetric, with cooling in parts of the continent and warming along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). During the contemporary period, declining Adélie penguin populations experienced more years with warm sea surface temperature compared to populations that are increasing. Based on this relationship, we project that one-third of current Adélie penguin colonies, representing ~20% of their current population, may be in decline by 2060. Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarcticum), another component of Adélie penguin’s diet, have declined coincident with WAP climate changes[14,15] and could influence penguin demographics such as breeding success, chick mass and survival. The map was produced in R version 3.1.3 (www.r-project.org)
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