Abstract
This study analyzes projected heat extremes over the Middle-East–North Africa (MENA) region until the end of the twenty-first century with a number of temperature indices based on absolute values and thresholds to describe hot conditions. We use model projected daily near-surface air (2-m) temperature (T_mathrm{{max}} and T_mathrm{{min}}) to derive the indices for the period 1980–2100. The data were taken from 18 CMIP5 models combining historical (1980–2005) and scenario runs (2006–2100 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 pathways). Results show a domain-wide projected warming for all emission scenarios. Our findings for a business-as-usual pathway indicate excessive warming of more than 8 ^circ C in the northern part of the domain (south Europe) for the annual warmest day (TXx) and night (TNx). In the hottest parts of the domain record high temperatures reached 50 ^circ C in the recent past, which could increase to at least 56 ^circ C by the end of the century, while temperatures over 50 ^circ C are expected to occur in a large part of the MENA region. A significant increase is projected in the number of hot days (TX >40^circ C) and nights (TN >30 ^circ C) all over the region. For the period of 2071–2100 excessive hot days and nights will become the normal during summer in large parts of the MENA with some locations expected to exceed 180 and 100 days, respectively. Calculations of the corresponding heat index suggest that several areas across the MENA region may reach temperature levels critical for human survival.
Highlights
The intensity, frequency, and duration of heatwaves have increased in many regions around the globe since the 1950s (Sillmann et al 2013a; Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis 2020) and temperatures are expected to further rise in the coming decades owing to climate change (Coumou and Robinson 2013; Sillmann et al 2013b)
Smaller increases are observed for the other two scenarios with the respective. In this part of the study, we extend the analysis of heat extremes to the highest projected temperatures over the Middle-East–North Africa (MENA) as well as the absolute numbers of hot days and nights per year, focusing on the RCP8.5 scenario results
This study analysed the temporal evolution and spatial patterns in the magnitude and frequency of temperature extremes, with emphasis on the excessively hot conditions projected for the end of the twenty-first century
Summary
The intensity, frequency, and duration of heatwaves have increased in many regions around the globe since the 1950s (Sillmann et al 2013a; Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis 2020) and temperatures are expected to further rise in the coming decades owing to climate change (Coumou and Robinson 2013; Sillmann et al 2013b). The Middle East-North Africa (MENA) region emerges as a climate change hotspot with strong temperature increases and rainfall reductions since the middle of the twentieth century (Lelieveld et al 2012; Tanarhte et al 2012; Zittis 2018; Ntoumos et al 2020). This region has been historically exposed to high temperatures and dryness. Climate projections indicate that in MENA, heat extremes intensification is very likely to continue throughout the twenty-first century 2.81 2.81 2.81 1.25 1.40 1.87 2.50 2.50 2.50 1.87 1.87 3.75 2.50 1.40 2.81 2.81 1.87 1.12 lat ( ◦)
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