Projected 21st Century Wind‐Wave Climate of Bass Strait and South‐East Australia: Comparison of EC‐Earth3 and ACCESS‐CM2 Climate Model Forcing

Abstract

AbstractThis study analyses the past and future wave climate of Bass Strait and south‐east Australia by comparing two high‐resolution regional wave climate models (RWCMs), respectively forced by the surface wind speed of EC‐Earth3 and ACCESS‐CM2 global circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5). The two RWCMs are verified against long‐term buoy and satellite observations as well as hindcast model data. The comparison with long‐term satellite altimeter observations shows good agreement between the long‐term model climate and the observations. Both RWCMs project a future increase in swell, approaching the coast of Tasmania and mainland Australia, generated from distant storms in the Southern Ocean. However, different projected wave height spatial distributions are found in the coastal regions, affected by local synoptic weather events and by the coarse resolution of the GCMs winds. We also show that the long‐term wave climate in the domain is impacted by the Southern Annular Mode. As low‐pressure systems are projected to move southward, especially in the SSP5‐8.5 scenario, the swells approaching south‐east Australia are projected to be longer and more energetic in the future. The combination of more energetic swell systems and a counterclockwise rotation in peak wave direction, projected by both RWCMs, may influence the coastal equilibrium, impacting critical coastal locations.