Abstract
This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computing the combined hazards of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges, astronomic tides, fluvial discharges, and changes in shoreline positions. The method is demonstrated through an application to Southern California, United States, where the shoreline is a mix of bluffs, beaches, highly managed coastal communities, and infrastructure of high economic value. Results show that inclusion of 100-year projected coastal storms will increase flooding by 9–350% (an additional average 53.0 ± 16.0 km2) in addition to a 25–500 cm sea-level rise. The greater flooding extents translate to a 55–110% increase in residential impact and a 40–90% increase in building replacement costs. To communicate hazards and ranges in socio-economic exposures to these hazards, a set of tools were collaboratively designed and tested with stakeholders and policy makers; these tools consist of two web-based mapping and analytic applications as well as virtual reality visualizations. To reach a larger audience and enhance usability of the data, outreach and engagement included workshop-style trainings for targeted end-users and innovative applications of the virtual reality visualizations.
Highlights
Increases in sea-level rise (SLR), nuisance flooding, and changing storm patterns in coastal areas are raising awareness of the need to mitigate, plan, and consider alternatives in construction guidelines for the safety of future and planned construction and human health and safety [1,2,3,4]
Few studies account for the combined effects of SLR and storm-driven coastal flooding on the local scale across vast geographic expanses; even fewer studies account for non-stationary changes in projected water levels and their resulting exposure hazards and socio-economic impacts [7,8,11,13,14,15]
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) framework projects global changes, which are driven by Global Climate Models (GCMs) to local scales via a suite of regional and local scale models simulating coastal hazards in response to projections of 21st century waves, storm surges, anomalous variations in water levels, river discharge, tides, and SLR
Summary
Increases in sea-level rise (SLR), nuisance flooding, and changing storm patterns in coastal areas are raising awareness of the need to mitigate, plan, and consider alternatives in construction guidelines for the safety of future and planned construction and human health and safety [1,2,3,4]. Few studies account for the combined effects of SLR and storm-driven coastal flooding on the local scale across vast geographic expanses; even fewer studies account for non-stationary changes in projected water levels and their resulting exposure hazards and socio-economic impacts [7,8,11,13,14,15] To address this void, the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) was developed to provide planners, managers, policy-makers, and engineers with local-scale (approximately 10–100 m) data on probable future coastal exposure hazards across large geographic scales (approximately one hundred to several thousand kilometers) [13,14,15]. A detailed discussion of the methodology, modeling framework, recent improvements, model validations/limitations, and an incorporation of uncertainty into coastal hazard projections can be found in Part 1 [16]
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