Projected 21st century climate change for wolverine habitats within the contiguous UnitedStates

Abstract

Ensembles of 21st century climate projections made using a state of the art global climatemodel are analyzed to explore possible changes in spring snow cover and summer airtemperature in present-day wolverine habitats in the contiguous United States (US).Projected changes in both snow cover and temperature are presented for a range of futureemissions scenarios, and implications for the continued survival of the wolverine in thecontiguous US are discussed. It is shown that under a high or medium–low emissionsscenario there are likely to be dramatic reductions in spring snow cover in present-daywolverine habitats. Under these scenarios there is also likely to be a concomitant increasein summer-time temperatures, with projected maximum daily August temperatures farabove those currently tolerated by the wolverine. It is likely that the wolverine, with itsmany adaptations for cold weather and deep snow pack, would have great difficultyadapting to such changes. The results of the simulations presented here suggest that thevery low numbers of wolverines currently living in the contiguous US will likelyfurther decline in response to the deterioration of their habitat in coming decades.