Abstract
In this paper, based on the assumption that the project schedule has already been calculated prior to risk impact, a statistical method is presented to recompute the expected schedule, its standard deviation, and 95% confidence for the true but unknown schedule. The confidence interval can serve to scientifically establish the upper and lower bounds for the schedule (and the cost) for use in, for example, the fee calculation of cost-plus-fixed-fee type projects. Even though the discussion in this paper is limited to project schedule matters, the method can be applied to project cost recomputation as well. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Syst Eng 1: 242–249, 1998
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