Abstract
The proposed methodology can be used to more accurately analyze and predict project results. The methodology is based on the interaction of the method of evaluating the project’s timing and budget - PERT and the method of constructing a multivariate forecast of the dynamics of the external environment - the decision tree. The combination of these methods excludes their shortcomings separately. Thus, the proposed methodology visualizes the development of the project in a graphic way and includes a probabilistic assessment of the project scenarios. The relevance of the work is due to the fact that many projects are currently being implemented in various spheres of human life, but not all projects achieve their goals, including IT projects. According to The Standish Group, around the world last year $ 750 billion was spent on software development and implementation projects, and only 36% of projects were completed successfully, while 48% were only partially successful, i.e. went beyond budget or on time, and the remaining 16% failed. As a result, $ 120 billion was spent on failed projects of $ 750 billion.
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