Project financing through public-private partnerships in Colombia: A look inside of 4G highway concessions

Abstract

This article analyzes the benefits of the financing scheme through Public-Private Partnerships for the Fourth Generation Highway Concessions Program in Colombia. In this program, the Government of Colombia establishes a concession for 25 years on highways and guarantees income through the Collection Difference Compensation Mechanism in years 8, 13, and 18. A case study is presented on the 4G highway "Autopista al Mar 2" to identify the commercial risks that may be caused by the difference in the collection between the concessionaire and the Colombian government. For this, three traffic scenarios are proposed to evaluate their impact on obtaining the Present Value from Toll Revenue - PVTR. Results show that this highway is financially viable for the base scenario through the project's finance scheme, and the commercial risk is not increased by the collection differences in any of the years 8, 13, or 18. The analysis foresees an additional income for the concessionaire of USD 123.19 million. Similar results were obtained in the optimistic scenario, with an additional collection of USD 655.90 million, which generates additional revenue to the concessionaire for operation and maintenance costs. However, if there is a 30% decrease in the estimated traffic in the baseline scenario, the PVTR will not be reached within 25 years of the concession, and the risk of Collection Difference is activated in the year 18, with an amount of USD 1.11 million; the Colombian State must provide this sum to the concessionaire. Finally, these results help create a roadmap on critical issues that require adjustments or improvements in the financing process to drive the effective development of 4G concessions.