Abstract
This study advances a project duration risk transmission model based on CCPM and the generalized project risk element transmission theory. By combining the calculation of systemic duration risk of a single process and the transmission of duration delay through an activity chain, this study proposes an modified method of calculating and setting input buffer and project buffer and also distinguishes the bottleneck activities on both the critical chain and non-critical chain, this method can offer a more reliable basis for making a project schedule plan and duration risk control.
Highlights
A project is an organic whole constituted by a series of unique, complex and interrelated activities
Through a combination of systemic risk of single-process duration and the transmission of duration delay through an activity chain, this study proposes an improved method of setting the input buffer and project buffer and indentifies the bottleneck activities on both the critical chain and non-critical chain, this method can provide a more reliable basis for the formulation of project schedule plan and duration risk control
Calculation of duration risk transmission on the chain: In the context of the overall project duration, this study considers the Order lag autoregressive discrete system composed by the expectation of schedule delay of current process and the expectation of schedule delay of the adjacent previous process, the dependent variable Yt is expressed as the function of its endogenous variable Yt-1 and its exogenous variable Xt: chain
Summary
A project is an organic whole constituted by a series of unique, complex and interrelated activities These activities have a clear goal and must be completed at a specific time, within limited budget and resources and in accordance with certain standard and specification. Since 1950s a large number of scholars have worked on the solution of this problem, mainly based on the Gantt chart method (Gantt chart), Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Critical Path Method (CPM) (Trietsch and Baker, 2012; Castro-Lacouture et al, 2009; Hong et al, 2005; Min et al, 2005) Most of these studies are belong to time-cost exchange areas and do not consider the resource constraint (Abbasi and Mukattash, 2001). Through a combination of systemic risk of single-process duration and the transmission of duration delay through an activity chain, this study proposes an improved method of setting the input buffer and project buffer and indentifies the bottleneck activities on both the critical chain and non-critical chain, this method can provide a more reliable basis for the formulation of project schedule plan and duration risk control
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