Project AF8: developing a coordinated, multi-agency response plan for a future great Alpine Fault earthquake

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe Alpine Fault is the most major source of seismic hazard in the South Island of New Zealand, with the potential to produce a magnitude 8+ earthquake and associated ground shaking and co-seismic hazards (e.g. landslides and liquefaction), and severe, widespread and long-term impacts throughout southern and central New Zealand. Scientific investigation of the hazard and risk posed by the Alpine Fault to New Zealand society over recent decades, and several recent large earthquake disasters in New Zealand (the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence and the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake) have created considerable national, regional and local awareness and motivation to boost disaster risk management efforts for major earthquakes, further emphasising the importance of Project AF8’s objectives. In July 2016, a project to develop a collective South Island emergency response plan was initiated, in partnership with all South Island Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) groups and the Alpine Fault research community. This has become known as Project AF8 (Alpine Fault, magnitude 8). We describe the development and outcomes of the project, towards enhancing societal resilience to a future Alpine Fault earthquake.