Progression to Second Birth in China: A Study of Four Rural Counties

Abstract

This study determines the hazard ratios for determining second births in four rural counties in Hebei and Shandong provinces in China during 1992-93. The sample included 7946 women aged under 35 years in their first marriage who gave birth after 1980. 54% of first births were males. 20% had a second birth (49% in Huasheng county). The second birth sex ratio was 1.41 compared to 1.17 for first births. 34% of women with a first birth in Pangxie county had an abortion while <25% of women in the other counties had abortions. 29.4% of women in Huasheng had a son 4 years after their first birth compared to <4.1% in the other counties. Within 10 years of the first birth 88% of women in Huasheng had a son at their second birth and 69% had a daughter. Only Pangxie had a normal sex ratio. Women with at least a senior high school education were quicker to have more sons. Second births occurred more frequently among women whose first birth was a daughter. The hazard of a second birth was 2.4 times that for a woman with one son. The hazard of a male second birth was 2.8 times that for a woman with a son and 2.1 times for a female second birth. Women in the oldest age group were 40% more likely to have a second birth. Higher economic status reduced the hazard of a second birth. The hazard of a second birth was 14% higher among couples with husbands making major decisions compared to joint decision making. Hazards were higher for first births during 1980-83 1984-86 and 1987-88. Models with county of residence included showed a reduced impact of education. Second births were more common in Huasheng due to the permission granted to wealthy and educated couples to have a second child as long as the fine was paid. These couples learned that fines supported family planning personnel who were willing to monitor more closely poorer and less educated couples who could not pay fines.