Progression of different echocardiographic parameters of aortic stenosis have different clinical associations

Abstract

Abstract Background Previous reports have described the risk factors for progression of aortic stenosis (AS). However, AS is recognized as a condition of the aortic valve and ventricle, and the AS marker chosen for the assessment of progression may influence the determinants of progression. Purpose To assess whether different clinical and demographic characteristics have a different impact on the progression of echocardiographic parameters on which stroke volume has a lesser (aortic valvular area [AVA], dimensionless severity index [DSI]) or greater influence (mean pressure gradient [MPG], or peak velocity [Vmax]). Methods Patients diagnosed with at least mild AS without an aortic valvular intervention identified from an echocardiographic database from January 1, 2009, to July 26, 2022, from a tertiary level hospital were included. AS progression models were evaluated using univariable and multivariable linear regression or mixed effects. AS severity was defined based on international guidelines. Results A total of 8,720 patients with at least mild AS were included and followed for up to 13.7 years. Multivariable mixed effects models identified important clinical predictors in understanding AS progression. After adjustment for relevant covariates, AVA decreased by 0.02 cm per year (95% CI: -0.025, -0.016, p<0.001), DSI decreased by 0.006 per year (95% CI: -0.008, -0.005), MPG increased by 0.962 mmHg per year (95% CI: 0.818, 1.107, p<0.001), Vmax increased by 6.742 cm/s per year (95% CI: 5.934, 7.549, p<0.001). Age, calcification, revascularisation, ejection fraction below 50%, and rheumatic heart disease, were the most consistent associations of progression of all echocardiographic parameters (Figure 1). Sex was associated with progression of AVA and DSI but not gradients. Changes in gradients (but not AVA and DSI) were associated with ischemic heart disease, chronic kidney disease, and atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter. Conclusion This longitudinal data analysis demonstrates differences in impact of baseline risk factors on AS progression on different echocardiographic parameters.Figure 1.Colour map of clinical predictors