Abstract
A methodology for predicting the probability of human task reliability during a task sequence is described. The method is based on a probabilistic performance requirement–resource consumption model. This enables error-promoting conditions in accident scenarios to be modelled explicitly and a time-dependent probability of error to be estimated. Particular attention is paid to modelling success arising from underlying human learning processes and the impact of limited resources. The paper describes the principles of the method together with an example related to safety and risk of a diver in the wreck scenario. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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