Progress toward some of sustainable development goals in China's population-shrinking cities

Abstract

A decrease in population is an emerging challenge in China's urbanization trajectory. This study utilizes data from the Sixth and Seventh Population Censuses to identify Chinese cities experiencing population decline, focusing on prefecture-level cities. It employs 30 indicators relevant to nine Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) concerning urban areas and populations to evaluate the progress of these shrinking cities in 2010 and 2020. A novel metric, "SDG population elasticity", is introduced to quantify the association between population reduction and SDG indexes. The study employs K-means++ clustering for 130 shrinking cities. The findings reveal that out of the 130 cities, 63 exhibit a downward trend in SDG index scores, predominantly in China's northeast and western regions. The Northeast region has negative SDG population elasticity, indicating a lag in sustainable development compared to that in other areas. Additionally, the research categorizes China's shrinking cities into four groups: cities with strong population elasticity feedback-significantly declining SDGs, cities with weak population elasticity feedback-slightly regressing SDGs, cities with high population loss-negative SDGs in decline, and cities with smart population decline-steady SDGs growth. These findings offer a foundation for crafting bespoke policies in shrinking cities to ensure a balanced approach to sustainable development and monitor advancement toward achieving the SDGs.