Abstract

Early in the planning of the Panama Canal, Navy Commander Thomas Oliver Selfridge, Jr., wrote that “advantageous as an interoceanic canal would be to the commercial welfare of the whole world, it is doubly so for the necessities of American interests.”1 And indeed, since the Canal opened in 1914, it has been the main conduit for ocean-going ships carrying trade worldwide. Today the United States ranks number one in tons of cargo passing through the Canal (China ranks number two).2 In 2011 nearly 13,000 ocean-going cargo ships made the passage.3 Starting in the late 1950s (and expanding rapidly thereafter), internationally traded goods started being shipped in large metal containers, making it possible to load and unload cargo by machine instead of by hand and spurring the manufacture of larger ships.4 “Panamax” ships were designed to be just small enough to squeeze through the locks of the Canal.5 Today, even larger ships—called “post-Panamax” because they are too large to fit through the Canal6—make up 16% of the world’s container fleet but account for nearly half the fleet’s cargo capacity.7 To allow these larger ships to transit the Canal and increase its ability to handle higher volumes of ships, Panama is building a third set of locks, with construction expected to be finished in 2015.7 The Panama Canal expansion has sparked the competitive imagination of East Coast and Gulf Coast (EC/GC) port authorities, who hope to capture some of the 70% of U.S. imports currently controlled by West Coast (WC) ports.8 Ports typically make their revenues through leases with shipping lines, wharfage fees, and tariffs. So the more containers a port handles, the more money it can make. Experts at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) call the Panama Canal expansion a likely “game changer” for U.S. trade, potentially redistributing the market share of each coast’s ports, as well as opening up new import and export markets for agricultural and other products along inland waterways.7 Some have estimated that container volumes at EC/GC ports could more than double from 2012 to 2029.7 But with this growth come questions about what major initiatives to expand cargo capacity could mean for public health in these port cities.

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