Abstract
This paper identifies fundamental issues which prevent the effective uptake of climate information services in Nigeria. We propose solutions which involve the extension of short-range (1 to 5 days) forecasts beyond that of medium-range (7 to 15 days) timescales through the operational use of current forecast data as well as improve collaboration and communication with forecast users. Using newly available data to provide seamless operational forecasts from short-term to sub-seasonal timescales, we examine evidence to determine if effective demand-led sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts can be co-produced. This evidence involves: itemization of forecast products delivered to stakeholders, with their development methodology; enumeration of inferences of forecast products and their influences on decisions taken by stakeholders; user-focused discussions of improvements on co-produced products; and the methods of evaluating the performance of the forecast products.We find that extending the production pipeline of short-range forecast timescales beyond the medium-range, such that the medium-range forecast timescales can be fed into existing tools for applying short-range forecasts, assisted in mitigating the risks of sub-seasonal climate variability on socio-economic activities in Nigeria. We also find that enhancing of collaboration and communication channels between the producers and the forecast product users helps to: enhance the development of user-tailored impact-based forecasts; increases users' trusts in the forecasts; and, seamlessly improves forecast evaluations. In general, these measures lead to more smooth delivery and increase in uptake of climate information services in Nigeria.
Highlights
Climate Information Services and Challenges in NigeriaThe delivery of climate information services in Nigeria has come of age
This paper aims to document the process of co-producing new forecast products to improve the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors in Nigeria
Through the GCRF African-SWIFT S2S forecasting testbed, new S2S climate forecast products have been co-developed with forecast users and forecast producers in Nigeria in a way not seen before
Summary
The delivery of climate information services in Nigeria has come of age. Climate services evolve around the timely transfer of meteorological data and forecast products to users in several socio-economic sectors. Forecasters and stakeholders utilize real-time predictions from state-of-the-art forecasting models to co-produce new and user-tailored sub-seasonal climate forecast products. These products are designed to aid decision-making in sectors such as health, food security, agriculture, environment, water resources, disaster risk reduction and energy. The co-produced forecast products are utilized by stakeholders to take numerous decisions that prevent losses, both materially and financially, in various sectors of the economy Provision of these sub-seasonal climate forecasts constitute parts of early warning systems that afford Nigerians sufficient time to mitigate against severe weather events that normally hinder socio-economic activities (Nkiaka et al, 2019, 2020). FSS over the country is able to indicate that the ECMWF-S2S precipitation forecasts are potentially useful by returning values that are > 0.5
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