Prognozowanie zużycia energii elektrycznej w województwach Polski w kontekście zrównoważonego rozwoju

Abstract

The goals of the EU energy policy result directly from the theory of sustainable development. There are also positions that there is a relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. It should also be borne in mind that the knowledge of long-term forecasts, including electricity demand, is an important factor in planning future generation sources. The aim of the article is to present the results of the dynamic and prognostic analysis of electricity consumption in Polish voivodeships. The studied category was defined by means of eleven variables. The research tools are Holt exponential smoothing and medium-term rate of change. The research period was the years 2000–2023. The source of the data was the LDB. The construction of rankings of the shaping of these features in the future allowed for the identification of inequalities. In the course of the research, a two-component hypothesis was formulated. In light of this, most of the examined objects are characterised by a development tendency. We observe constant positions taken in the rankings prepared for the projected values of energy consumption in the basic economic sectors. The obtained results made it possible to assess the diversity of the examined objects. The leaders in terms of electricity consumption are Mazowieckie and Śląskie voivodeships. In the future, energy consumption will continue to vary across the main economic sectors. In the course of the research, the first part of the hypothesis was verified positively, and the second one – negatively. With regard to the industrial, energy and household sectors, one can expect that the positions occupied by the examined objects in the constructed rankings will be stable.