Prognozowanie i symulacje międzynarodowe

Abstract

International forecasting and simulation is a study that summarizes research, in a shortened and integrated version. The thematic scope concerns the basic terminology and methodological issues of forecasts and the forecasting process itself, forecasting institutions and the final product, i.e. international forecasts. The main goal is to present and systematize basic knowledge in the field of forecasting in international relations. The book is generally aimed at all those interested in international affairs. However, the author hopes that the publication will also be helpful for researchers and analysts dealing with difficult issues of international forecasting in the field of their scientific research methodologies. The work consists of two parts – theoretical and empirical. The theoretical part includes two chapters. The first chapter begins by discussing the concepts of forecasting and simulation. Next, considerations were made about the place of forecasting in science, pointing out the existing dilemmas in this regard, and also discussed categories, classifications and functions of forecasting and simulation. The second chapter presents the main elements of the forecast and the phases of the forecasting process. Most space was devoted to the presentation of the most important methods of forecasting in international relations, not limiting itself only to discussing them, but also assessing their usefulness for formulating international forecasts. In the third chapter, which is of an empirical nature, the selected forecasting institutions are first discussed according to the division applied into typically research, university, governmental, international and private institutions. This classification is of a contractual nature, but corresponds to the basic functions performed by individual institutions. In the further part of this chapter, the most important – according to the author – ecological, demographic and political forecasts are presented, focusing on discussing the main consequences of their possible implementation for international relations.