Prognosticating the effect on Unemployment rate in the post-pandemic India via Time-Series Forecasting and Least Squares Approximation

Abstract

The current paper aims to analytically visualize the future outcomes that the post-pandemic India might have in store for its citizens. We use time series forecasting on various collected data and combined the statistics of economics-deciding parameters to forecast the trends that might be prevalent in the next year. Since, the data contains a single anomalous trend, even the Prophet model could not learn this property from the data since this trend is not seasonal in nature. The current study proposes a novel architecture to deal with these rare unusual trends by combining two models - one learning normal usual patterns and the other getting trained on usual as well as rare anomalous patterns. It could help in dealing with sudden hike patterns like due to COVID-19 in the data, and lead to better forecasting on future timeframes. We combined the results of two distinct time-forecasting models trained on two sets of data of varying timeline lengths, using parameters obtained from Least Squares Approximation (LSA). The LSA helps us find an approximate vector approximation so as to obtain a model performing closely to the actual.