Prognostic value of estimated plasma volume in acute heart failure in three cohort studies

Abstract

Estimated plasma volume status (ePVS) predicts prognosis in patients with heart failure (HF). It remains unclear whether admission, discharge or change ePVS best predicts post-discharge outcome in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We retrospectively analyzed three cohort studies: 383 patients admitted at the Tokyo Medical University hospital, 165 patients admitted at the Centro Hospitalar do Porto and 164 patients admitted at the Nancy University Hospital (ICALOR study). ePVS at admission and at discharge as well as its change thereof were, respectively, calculated using the Duarte and Strauss formulas, both derived from hemoglobin and hematocrit ratios. Clinical variables including physical assessment, biological and echocardiographic parameters were recorded. The clinical outcome was a composite of re-hospitalization for worsening HF or all-cause mortality [corrected]. The primary outcomes occurred in 27.2% at 1year (in the Tokyo cohort), 45.3% at 6months (in the Porto cohort) and 53.9% at median terms of 298.3days (in the ICALOR study). After adjusting for potential confounders including natriuretic peptide, discharge ePVS remained significantly associated with increased rates of composite outcome in the Tokyo and Porto cohorts and ICALOR study [hazard ratio (HR) 1.21 (1.01-1.44), p = 0.04; HR 1.45 (1.16-1.81), p < 0.01; HR 1.45 (1.16-1.81), p < 0.01, respectively]. In addition, a pooled analysis yielded a significant improvement in reclassification with discharge ePVS [net reclassification index 13.6% (5.9-22.7), p = 0.004]. As validated in three independent ADHF cohorts, ePVS at discharge was independently associated with post-discharge clinical outcomes and improved the risk stratification of patients admitted for ADHF on top of well-established prognostic markers.