Prognostic value of coronary artery calcium score in hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Abstract

Abstract Background The association between known cardiovascular risk factors and poor prognosis of patients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been recently emphasized (1). Coronary artery calcium (CAC) score assessed by computed tomography (CT) is considered a risk modifier in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and has shown to improve cardiovascular risk prediction in addition to classical risk factors (2). Purpose We hypothesized that the absence of CAC might have an additional predictive value for an improved cardiovascular outcome of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Methods We prospectively included 310 consecutive hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Thirty patients with a history of coronary artery disease were excluded.Low dose non-contrast chest CT was performed in all patients at admission. Visual assessment of CAC in every coronary artery was obtained by using an ordinal scoring of 0, 1, 2 or 3 corresponding to absent, mild, moderate or severe CAC score. A total score was calculated by summing the score of each vessel, which was further categorized as 0 (undetectable), 1–3 (mild), 4–5 (moderate) and ≥6 (severe). (Figure 1). Demographics, medical history, clinical characteristics, laboratory findings, imaging data, in–hospital treatment and outcomes were retrospectively analyzed. A composite endpoint of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) was defined as all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events (heart failure, myocarditis, arrhythmia, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, pulmonary embolism). Results Two-hundred eighty patients (63.2±16.7 years old, 57.5% male) were included in the analysis. One hundred thirty one (46.7%) patients had a CAC score of zero. MACE-rate was 24.2% (68 patients). Multivariate logistic regression showed that the absence of CAC was inversely associated with MACE (OR 0.264, 95% 0.071–0.981, p=0.047), with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 81.4%, sensitivity 70%, specificity 55%, independent of age, risk factors or disease severity (Table 1). Conclusion The absence of CAC translated into a low risk for MACE in COVID-19 patients, even in the presence of cardiac risk factors, which reinforces the idea that the assessment of CAC score in COVID-19 patients could be a useful marker for patients risk stratification and management. Future directions should focus on the implementation of CAC score into mid-term and long-term follow-up of this particular population, to provide a more precise and earlier estimation of cardiovascular risk Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1Table 1