Prognostic Value of Combined Detection of Preoperative Albumin-to-Fibrinogen Ratio and Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio in Operable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients without Neoadjuvant Therapy.

Abstract

BackgroundWe retrospectively analyzed the prognostic value of the albumin-to-fibrinogen ratio (AFR)–neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) score, comprising preoperative AFR and NLR, in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients after radical resection.Patients and MethodsOverall, 215 patients were included. The optimal cutoff value was determined using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Based on a low AFR (<12.06) and high NLR (≥1.78), the AFR–NLR score was classified as 2 (both hematological abnormalities present), 1 (one abnormality present), or 0 (both abnormalities absent). Kaplan–Meier curves, Cox regression, and predicted nomogram were used to evaluate the prognostic value of the score.ResultsThe prognostic value of the AFR–NLR score was better than that of AFR or NLR alone (P <0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that a high AFR–NLR score was an independent predictor of poor prognosis for overall survival (P <0.001). Additionally, in the nomogram including the AFR–NLR score, the net reclassification improvement index increased by 35.5% (P <0.001), and the integrated discrimination improvement index increased by 9.0% (P <0.001). The predictive accuracy of the established nomogram model was proved using Harrell’s concordance index (0.811, 95% confidence interval: 0.765–0.856) and calibration curve. Notably, the decision analysis curve showed that the nomogram had a higher net benefit within most of the threshold probability range, indicating better clinical applicability.ConclusionThe AFR–NLR score is a useful predictor of the prognosis of ESCC patients after radical resection, and the nomogram established on the basis of this score has a good prognostic value.