Prognostic value of Bcl-2 in two independent populations of estrogen receptor positive breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant endocrine therapy

Abstract

Introduction. Estrogen receptor (ER) status is not an optimal marker for response to adjuvant endocrine therapy since approximately 30% of patients with ER-positive tumors eventually relapse. Bcl-2 is regulated by ER and may thus be considered as an indicator of ER activity and a candidate supplementary marker to ER status. Patients and methods. Tumor tissue from 257 patients with ER-positive breast cancer treated with tamoxifen was used for determination of the best threshold for immunohistochemical Bcl-2 assessment as prognostic marker. Subsequently, samples from the Danish patients of the randomized clinical trial BIG 1-98 comprising 1191 ER-positive patients treated with tamoxifen, letrozole or a sequence of the two were immunohistochemically stained for Bcl-2 to further explore the prognostic value of Bcl-2. Results. Two Bcl-2 levels were found to divide the population of the primary study into significantly different groups according to disease-free survival (DFS). Multivariate analysis confirmed the significance of the lowest level, and showed Bcl-2 to be an independent prognostic marker. Analysis of the Danish cohort of the BIG 1-98 confirmed that Bcl-2 was a significant predictor of DFS, independent of known prognostic markers. However, in an additional analysis of a subset of the Danish cohort of BIG 1-98 including only HER-2 normal patients, the effect of Bcl-2 was not statistically significant. Discussion. Low Bcl-2 can predict poor outcome of patients with ER-positive tumors treated with adjuvant endocrine therapy, whereas the use of Bcl-2 for determination of addition of chemotherapy was not supported by this study.