Prognostic Thresholds of Mitotic Count and Ki-67 Labeling Index for Recurrence and Survival in Lung Atypical Carcinoids

Abstract

Atypical carcinoid (AC) is a rare neuroendocrine neoplasm of the lung, which exhibits a varying malignant potential. In this study, we aimed to identify the prognostic thresholds of the mitotic count and Ki-67 labeling index for recurrence and survival in AC. We retrospectively reviewed 78 patients who had been radically resected for AC and calculated said thresholds using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves and the Youden index. We then dichotomized the patients into groups of above or below these thresholds and estimated the cumulative incidences of the groups using the Aalen–Johansen estimator. We compared the groups using univariable and multivariable Fine–Gray subdistribution hazard models. Our findings show that more patients recurred and died from this disease if their mitotic count exceeded three and four mitoses per 2 mm2, respectively, or if their Ki-67 labeling index exceeded 14% and 11%, respectively. Both thresholds independently predicted survival (p < 0.001 and p = 0.015, respectively). These thresholds may serve as a valuable tool for clinicians and researchers in making treatment plans and predicting outcomes for patients with AC.