Prognostic prediction of the longitudinal cognitive trajectory of amyloid‐positive patients with mild dementia

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundPrediction of longitudinal cognitive decline for patients with mild dementia using baseline characteristics will be useful for designing optimal clinical trials and real‐world patient monitoring. This can be accomplished via machine‐learning models using baseline clinical characteristics. Adding plasma pTau181 and brain region volumes may improve the predictions.MethodThe training cohort (TC) included 905 amyloid‐positive (A+) patients with mild dementia from two clinical trials. The validation cohort (VC) included 230 A+ patients from another clinical trial. Over 85% of these patients had MCI. The longitudinal cognitive decline was defined by the change from baseline in CDR‐SB at months 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, and 18. Plasma pTau181 was measured using Simoa assay in a subset of 159 patients in TC.Structural brain network (SBN) modules and hubs were derived using 207 regional volumetric MRI measures in TC via an algorithm from genomics called “multiscale embedded gene co‐expression network analysis”. A signature for predicting longitudinal cognitive trajectory for each patient was first derived using baseline cognitive assessments and demographics within TC via the Stochastic Gradient Boosting algorithm. The added value of SBNs and plasma pTau181 was then evaluated within this framework. Prediction performance was evaluated in VC via the correlation between predicted versus observed cognitive trajectory.ResultPredictions of the longitudinal cognitive trajectory using baseline cognitive assessments achieved 43.4% and 42.5% correlation with observed values at months 12 and 18 respectively. Key baseline cognitive function predictors were ADAS‐Cog‐14, CDR‐SB, and sub‐scores such as ideational praxis and word recall.Adding baseline SBNs significantly improved the correlation between predicted versus observed cognitive trajectory to 46.3% and 49.7% at months 12 and 18 respectively (p<0.05). Key baseline SBN predictors were middle and inferior temporal, inferior parietal, and superior frontal cortex, along with a module comprising the entorhinal cortex and temporal pole. Adding baseline plasma pTau181 to cognitive assessments yielded similar improvements, but adding both pTau181 and SBNs did not improve the predictions further.ConclusionLongitudinal cognitive decline of A+ patients with mild dementia can be predicted using baseline cognitive assessments. Adding specific structural brain networks or plasma pTau181 significantly improves the predictions.