Prognostic Nomogram for Overall Survival of Patients Aged 50 Years or Older with Cervical Cancer.

Abstract

ObjectiveThe prognostic factors of cervical cancer in elderly patients have not been researched systematically. We aimed to investigate the clinicopathological characteristics of patients with cervical cancer aged ≥50 years and establish a nomogram for evaluating their prognoses for overall survival.MethodsFrom the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, we obtained data of 8538 patients with pathology-confirmed cervical cancer between 2004 and 2015. Patients were divided into training (n = 5941) and validation (n = 2597) cohorts. A nomogram was constructed to evaluate the prognostic prediction value for disease progression. The concordance index, receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration chart were used to evaluate the model’s prediction accuracy and discriminative ability. Survival condition was analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method.ResultsIn the training cohort, age at diagnosis, race, histology, grade, stage, tumor size, number of examined lymph nodes, and treatment significantly correlated with outcome and were used to develop the nomogram. The calibration curve for survival probability showed an excellent agreement between the nomogram-predicted and actual survival in the training cohort.ConclusionOur nomogram has less bias and gives better accuracy than the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics staging system and can help set up a more individualized feasible follow-up plan.