Prognostic models for estimating survival of salivary duct carcinoma: a population-based study.

Abstract

In a large salivary duct carcinoma (SDC) cohort, we aimed to investigate the clinical factors influencing their survival outcomes and to further establish prognostic models. Data of patients with SDC were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (1975-2019). A retrospective analysis was conducted to explore the prognostic factors on overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS), and corresponding nomograms were established. A steady upward trend in the incidence of SDC was observed over the past four decades. Totally, 399 patients (280 in the training set and 199 in the testing set) were enrolled. Advanced T stage, lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis, and surgery were associated with favorable OS and DSS. Besides, age > 80years exhibited worse OS. The selected variables above were used to construct nomograms and online web calculators that could accurately predict patient survival. In addition, risk stratification systems were generated to identify low- and high-risk patients. As the risk level increased, the risk of both patient mortality and disease-specific mortality increased. The SDC incidence was low, but steadily increasing. The proposed prognostic models provided a robust and efficient approach to predict survival and risk stratification in SDC patients.