Abstract
BackgroundCervical squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC) is the most common histological subtype of cervical cancer. The purpose of this study was to assess prognostic factors and establish personalized risk assessment nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in CSCC patients.MethodsCSCC patients diagnosed between 1988 and 2015 were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were applied to select meaningful independent predictors and construct predictive nomogram models for OS and CSS. The concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to determine the predictive accuracy and discriminability of the nomogram.ResultsA total cohort (n=17962) was randomly divided into a training cohort (n=11974) and a validation cohort (n=5988). Age, race, histologic grade, clinical stage, tumor size, chemotherapy and historic stage were assessed as common independent predictors of OS and CSS. The C-index value of the nomograms for predicting OS and CSS was 0.771 (95% confidence interval 0.762-0.780) and 0.786 (95% confidence interval 0.777-0.795), respectively. Calibration curves of the nomograms indicated satisfactory consistency between nomogram prediction and actual survival for both 3-year and 5-year OS and CSS.ConclusionWe constructed nomograms that could predict 3- and 5-year OS and CSS of CSCC patients. These nomograms showed good performance in prognostic prediction and can be used as an effective tool to evaluate the prognosis of CSCC patients, thus contributing to clinical decision making and individualized treatment planning.
Highlights
Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide and is especially common in low- and middle-income countries [1]
We focused on cervical squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC)
Information of patients who had been diagnosed with cervical squamous cell carcinoma between 1988 and 2015 was obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database by SEER*Stat software.The SEER database data was derived from 18 cancer registry databases [15]
Summary
Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide and is especially common in low- and middle-income countries [1]. It is generally accepted that clinical stage is a reliable prognostic indicator for patients with cervical carcinoma [5]. Clinical staging is mainly based on the tumor size in the cervix or its extension into the pelvis, without taking into account many other important prognostic factors, such as age, race, or treatment model. It is obvious that clinical stage is still insufficient to predict the prognosis of a CSCC patient. Cervical squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC) is the most common histological subtype of cervical cancer. The purpose of this study was to assess prognostic factors and establish personalized risk assessment nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in CSCC patients. The concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to determine the predictive accuracy and discriminability of the nomogram
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