Prognostic Factors of Short-Term Outcome of Low Back Pain in Patients Attending Health Insurance Clinics in Sharkia Governorate, Egypt

Abstract

Objectives. This study aimed to determine the predictors of short-term outcome of low back pain (LBP) in a cohort of LBP patients. Subjects and Methods. A prospective cohort of 400 LBP patients who attending the health insurance clinics at Al-Hussinia city, Sharakia governorate, Egypt, were the subjects of this study. The data were collected by using a predesigned questionnaire at the index consultation. The outcome variable (good versus bad outcome), in terms of return to work, was collected one/two weeks later on the next consultation or by telephone. Statistical analyses including predictive regression analysis was done. Results. Out of the analysed 349 patients, there have been 202 patients (58%) with good back pain outcome. Logistic regression analyses showed that the factors most significantly associated with good back pain outcome were the recency of pain (OR = 4.85; 95% CI = 2.88–8.17), patient's occupation (OR = 2.11; 95% CI = 1.33–3.35) and absence of obesity (OR = 2.70; 95% CI = 1.15–5.22). Other significant less important factors were age of the patient, and site of pain. Conclusions. Reliable information on back pain related history, patient's occupation, body mass index and age of the patient at the index consultation are important to assess short-term prognosis in LBP patients.