Prognostic factors for progression of clinical osteoarthritis of the knee: a systematic review of observational studies.

Alex N Bastick,Janneke N Belo,Jos Runhaar,Sita M.A Bierma-Zeinstra

doi:10.1186/s13075-015-0670-x

Abstract

IntroductionWe performed a systematic review of prognostic factors for the progression of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA), defined as increase in pain, decline in physical function or total joint replacement.MethodWe searched for available observational studies up to January 2015 in Medline and Embase according to a specified search strategy. Studies that fulfilled our initial inclusion criteria were assessed for methodological quality. Data were extracted and the results were pooled, or if necessary summarized according to a best evidence synthesis.ResultsOf 1,392 articles identified, 30 met the inclusion criteria and 38 determinants were investigated. Pooling was not possible due to large heterogeneity between studies. The best evidence synthesis showed strong evidence that age, ethnicity, body mass index, co-morbidity count, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected infrapatellar synovitis, joint effusion and baseline OA severity (both radiographic and clinical) are associated with clinical knee OA progression. There was moderate evidence showing that education level, vitality, pain-coping subscale resting, MRI-detected medial femorotibial cartilage loss and general bone marrow lesions are associated with clinical knee OA progression. However, evidence for the majority of determinants was limited (including knee range of motion or markers) or conflicting (including age, gender and joint line tenderness).ConclusionStrong evidence was found for multiple prognostic factors for progression of clinical knee OA. A large variety in definitions of clinical knee OA (progression) remains, which makes it impossible to summarize the evidence through meta-analyses. More research on prognostic factors for knee OA is needed using symptom progression as an outcome measure. Remarkably, only few studies have been performed using pain progression as an outcome measure. The pathophysiology of radiographic factors and their relation with symptoms should be further explored.

Highlights

We performed a systematic review of prognostic factors for the progression of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA), defined as increase in pain, decline in physical function or total joint replacement
There was moderate evidence showing that education level, vitality, pain-coping subscale resting, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected medial femorotibial cartilage loss and general bone marrow lesions are associated with clinical knee
Society International Atlas (OARSI) criteria) or radiographic evidence of knee OA at baseline (equivalent to a Kellgren and Lawrence (K/L) score ≥2 at baseline); the study investigated determinants associated with the clinical progression of knee OA; a specific clinical outcome measure was appointed, i.e., pain, function or knee joint replacement; the study had either a case–control or cohort design with a minimal follow-up period of 1 year; the full text of the article was available; and the study was written in English, Dutch, German or French

Summary

Introduction

We performed a systematic review of prognostic factors for the progression of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA), defined as increase in pain, decline in physical function or total joint replacement. Belo et al [2] published a systematic review determining all prognostic factors for knee OA. Their literature search was performed up to 2003 and none of Department of General Practice, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center. We have chosen to perform a systematic review of prognostic factors for the symptomatic (i.e., clinical) progression of knee OA. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic review of its kind

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