Prognostic factors for morbidity and mortality in elderly patients undergoing acute gastrointestinal surgery: a systematic review

Abstract

Elderly patients undergoing acute gastrointestinal (GI) surgery experience increased morbidity and mortality compared with younger and elective patients. Prognostic factors can be used to counsel patients of these risks and, if modifiable, to minimize them. We reviewed the literature on prognostic factors for adverse outcomes in elderly patients undergoing acute GI surgery. We searched PubMed and Embase using a strategy developed in collaboration with an expert librarian. Studies examining independent associations between prognostic factors and morbidity or mortality in patients aged 65 and older undergoing acute GI surgery were selected. We extracted data using a standardized form and assessed study quality using the QUIPS tool. Nine cohort studies representing 2958 patients satisfied our selection criteria. All studies focused on postoperative mortality. Thirty-four prognostic factors were examined, with significant variability across studies. There was limited or conflicting evidence for most prognostic factors. Meta-analysis was only possible for the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, which was found to be associated with mortality in 4 studies (pooled odds ratio 2.77, 95% confidence interval 0.92-8.41). While acute GI surgery in elderly patients is becoming increasingly common, the literature on prognostic factors for morbidity and mortality in this patient population lags behind. Further research is needed to help guide patient care and potentially improve outcomes.