Prognostic factors for kidney allograft survival in the Eurotransplant Senior Program

Abstract

The shortage of organ donors has led to the introduction of the Eurotransplant Senior Program (ESP) to optimize the allocation of kidneys from elderly donors by age-matching. In the face of a rapidly aging population, identification of prognostic factors for kidney allograft survival within the ESP population will be of enormous significance. Donor and recipient data from 89 patients transplanted under the ESP protocol between 1999 and 2007 were retrospectively analyzed. Data were correlated with initial graft function, graft survival, acute rejection episodes, serum creatinine levels, glomerular filtration rates, and patient survival using univariate and multivariate analysis. Maximum follow-up was 5 years. Cold ischemia time (CIT) >16 hours, body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m(2), and kidney re-transplantation were significant risk factors for delayed graft function (DGF). Odds ratio for primary non-function was significantly increased with prolonged CIT, BMI ≥25 kg/m(2), and duration of renal replacement therapy >69 months. CIT >15 h, DGF, and kidney re-transplantation were associated with poor graft survival (P<0.05). Risk reduction (e.g., aiming at CIT <15 h) and close surveillance of patients at risk appear to be crucial for allograft survival in the ESP.