Prognostic analysis and treatment utilization of different treatment strategies in elderly esophageal cancer patients with distant metastases: a SEER database analysis.

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to explore which therapeutic strategy is more beneficial for elderly esophageal cancer (EC) patients with distant metastasis, the treatment utilization status and the screening of factors related to prognosis, so as to better guide the treatment of these patients. Patients in the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were divided into chemoradiotherapy (Group A), chemotherapy (Group B), radiotherapy (Group C), and no treatment (Group D) according to different treatment methods. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to adjust for baseline differences between the two groups. Overall survival (OS) and esophageal cancer-specific survival (ECSS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. A total of 7027 patients were included in this study, 5739 males (81.7%) and 1288 females (18.3%) with the median age was 70 (60-98). In the original cohort, the number of patients in the four groups was 2260 (Group A), 2087 (Group B), 945 (Group C) and 1735 (Group D), respectively. After PSM, there was no significant difference in mean OS (A vs B, 13.5months VS 13.4months, P = 0.511) and mean ECSS (A vs B, 15.6 vs 15.5months, P = 0.374), while both OS (B vs C, 7 vs 3months, P < 0.001) and ECSS (B vs C, 8 vs 3months, P < 0.001) of chemotherapy alone were significantly better than those of radiotherapy alone. Subgroup analysis of patients older than 80years showed that the median OS (A vs B, 7 vs 6months) and median ECSS (A vs B, 8 vs 7months) of Group A were significantly better than those of Group B (P < 0.05). In addition, all patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set with a ratio of 7:3. Based on the independent risk factors for OS, a nomogram model was constructed and validated. For elderly EC patients with distant metastasis, aggressive treatment was still necessary after a comprehensive assessment of the patient's physical condition, especially for patients over 80years old, and chemoradiotherapy maybe still the first choice. In addition, a nomogram model was constructed to intuitively and accurately evaluate the prognosis of this population.