Prognostic analysis and nomogram construction for older patients with IDH-wild-type glioblastoma

Abstract

As many countries face an ageing population, the number of older patients with glioblastoma (GB) is increasing. Thus, there is an urgent need for prognostic models to aid in treatment decision-making and life planning. A total of 98 patients with isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH)-wild-type GB aged ≥65 years were analysed from January 2012 to January 2020. Independent prognostic factors were identified by prognostic analysis. Using the independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS), a nomogram was constructed by R software to predict the prognosis of older patients with IDH-wild-type GB. The concordance index (C-index) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to assess model discrimination, and the calibration curve was used to assess model calibration. Prognostic analysis showed that the extent of resection (EOR), adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI), O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) methylation status, postoperative radiotherapy, and postoperative temozolomide (TMZ) chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for OS. MGMT methylation status and subventricular zone (SVZ) involvement were independent prognostic factors for progression-free survival (PFS). A nomogram was constructed based on EOR, ACCI, MGMT methylation status, postoperative radiotherapy and postoperative TMZ chemotherapy to predict the 6-month, 12-month and 18-month OS of older patients with IDH-wild-type GB. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.72, and the ROC curves showed that the areas under the curve (AUCs) at 6, 12 and 18 months were 0.874, 0.739 and 0.779, respectively. The calibration plots showed that the nomogram was in good agreement with the actual observations in predicting the OS of older patients with IDH-wild-type GB. Older patients with IDH-wild-type GB can benefit from gross total resection (GTR), postoperative radiotherapy and postoperative TMZ chemotherapy. A high ACCI score and MGMT nonmethylation are poor prognostic factors. We constructed a nomogram including the ACCI to facilitate clinical decision-making and follow-up interval selection.