Abstract

 
 
 A rigorous methodology is presented for both specification and verification of prognostic algorithm performance. The prognostic algorithm specification statement takes the form, “The prognostic algorithm shall provide a minimum of <TTM> hours time-to-maintenance such that between <Lower>% and <Upper>% of failures of component ABC will be avoided with <Confidence>% confidence.” The methodology is developed first for a single failure mode case and then extended to the multiple failure mode case. The case of non-prognosable failure modes is also considered. Finally, implications of this approach are presented, including pre- tabulation of confidence bounds, estimation of the minimum amount of data required to reach a given verification confidence, and a method for using a minimum confidence growth curve to account for initial low confidence in a prognostic algorithm.
 
 
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