Prognostic Algorithm for Degradation Prediction of Aerial Bundled Cables in Coastal Areas

Abstract

Cables are the crucial component in the electrical distribution system. Aerial Bundled Cables (ABCs) is a combination of insulated phase conductors bundled tightly together. They have replaced conventional cables due to simplicity in installation and being less prone to pilferage. However insulation degradation is a very common problem with ABCs especially when subjected to coastal environments. Due to bundled structure, the moisture penetrates within the cables. During electrical loading of the cable, this moisture starts deteriorating the cable insulation which eventually results in the cable failure. Actual Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) data from the installed in-service cable is acquired at different time instants to study the phenomena of insulation degradation w.r.t. time. A Particle Filter (PF) based prognostic approach is proposed in this paper to predict the insulation degradation for future time instants so that the cable can be replaced before the failure occurs. The proposed method will help the electrical maintenance managers to plan the replacement activity well in time to ensure uninterruptible/smooth electrical supply.