PROGNOSIS OF THE DIAMETER DISTRIBUTION AND CARBON STOCK IN A SECONDARY ATLANTIC FOREST BY MARKOV CHAIN

Paulo Henrique Villanova,Laércio Antônio Gonçalves Jacovine,Bruno Leão Said Schettini,Samuel José Silva Soares Da Rocha,Carlos Moreira Miquelino Eleto Torres,Carlos Pedro Boechat Soares,Liniker Fernandes Da Silva

doi:10.1590/1806-90882018000200008

Paulo Henrique Villanova, Laércio Antônio Gonçalves Jacovine + Show 5 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-90882018000200008

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Abstract

ABSTRACT Growth and yield modeling at the diameter distribution level is an important tool to understand forest dynamics and to predict whether a forest will act as a CO2 emissions source or sink. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to determine the diameter distribution and carbon stock of a forest fragment using the Markov chain to evaluate the impact of growth dynamics on forest carbon capture. Twenty plots of 10x50m were inventoried, between 2010 and 2015, counting the stems with dbh > 5 cm. Diameter distribution was projected for 2015 and 2020, considering the whole fragment and the ecological groups (pioneer and non-pioneer tree species). The volume was determined using allometric equation while biomass and carbon was determined by multiplying the volume by the basic wood density and the carbon content, respectively. The diameter distribution estimated for the fragment and ecological groups did not differ statistically from the values observed using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (p-value < 0.05). The number of stems ha-1 estimated in the fragment was from 1,692 in 2015 to 1,841 in 2020. For the pioneer and non-pioneer species, the number of stems ha-1 was from 476 and 1,203 in 2015 to 472 and 1,362 in 2020, respectively. The carbon stock increased 5.69 MgC ha-1, with the greater contribution coming from the non-pioneer species. Therefore, it was concluded that the diameter distribution would remain “J-inverted” and the forest fragment would continue to act as a carbon sink over the coming years.

Highlights

Tropical forests play a fundamental role, providing ecosystem services and maintaining plant biodiversity (Silva et al, 2016)
It was concluded that the diameter distribution would remain “J-inverted” and the forest fragment would continue to act as a carbon sink over the coming years
The parameter 1 of the equations adjusted to estimate the number of stems that entered at a level of 5% significance was not significant for the forest fragment or for the ecological groups (Table 1)

Summary

Introduction

Tropical forests play a fundamental role, providing ecosystem services and maintaining plant biodiversity (Silva et al, 2016). These environmental functions have been severely affected in recent decades due to intense fragmentation of these areas (Scarano and Ceotto, 2015). There is only 12.5% of its original coverage spread across forest fragments smaller than 100 ha (Fundação SOS Mata Atlântica and INPE, 2015) Given this scenario, studies focusing on growth and yield modeling are extremely important for the biodiversity and ecosystem service maintenance of these forest fragments (Lima and Leão, 2013). Independent of its structural complexity, the aim of modelling is to allow the projection of production into the future based on current conditions (Chassot et al, 2011), with diameter distribution models, in particular the transition matrix, being the most common for tropical forests (Teixeira et al, 2007; Vasconcelos et al, 2009; Batista et al, 2016)

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