Abstract
Early prediction of severity of acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) may have an important value for determination of management tactic and adequate intensive medical care. Applying of the existing prognostic systems not always is sufficient for correct prognosis. There were 227 patients with ABP. The following methods were used for the investigation: clinical, ELISA for the measurement of mediators of inflammatory response, X-ray, ultrasonography, computer tomography, endoscopic retrograde cholangiography, magnetic resonance tomography. Results of statistical analysis shown that for the prediction of severity of clinical course of ABP the several indices should be applied: Age > 60 years Leukocytosis > 12 × 109/L Bilirubin > 50 μM/L Lipase > 800 IU/L ALAT > 1 mM/h·L Alkaline phosphatase > 120 U/L α2-macroglobulin < 1.8 g/L C-reactive protein > 120 mg/L α1-antitrypsin < 2 g/L In cases of four and more positive indices the severe course of ABP is probable. Applying of this system showed the sensitivity 71.4% and specificity 83.3%. Thus, the easy and accessible system for the prediction of severity of ABP was proposed.
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