Prognosis of patients removed from a transplant waiting list for medical improvement: Implications for organ allocation and transplantation for status 2 patients

Abstract

To address the present controversy regarding optimal management of status 2 heart transplant candidates, we studied the short- and long-term fate of medically improved patients removed from our transplant waiting list to assess return of heart failure and occurrence of sudden cardiac death, identify interventions to improve outcomes, and compare their survival with that of similar transplanted patients. From January 1985 to February 2004, 100 status 2 patients were delisted for medical improvement (median on-list duration, 314 days). Return of heart failure, sudden cardiac death, and all-cause mortality were determined from follow-up (mean, 7.7 +/- 3.9 years among survivors; 10% followed >12 years). Hazard function modeling, competing-risks analyses, simulation, and propensity matching to equivalent patients undergoing transplantation were used to analyze and compare outcomes and predict benefit of interventions. Freedom from return of heart failure was 77% at 5 years. The most common mode of death was sudden cardiac death, with risk peaking at 2.5 years after delisting but remaining at 3.5% per year thereafter. Event-free survival at 1, 5, and 10 years was 94%, 55%, and 28%, respectively; simulation demonstrated that implantable cardioverter-defibrillators could have improved this to 45% at 10 years. Overall survival after delisting was better than that of matched status 2 patients who underwent transplantation, but was demonstrably worse after 30 months. Status 2 patients, including those delisted, require vigilant surveillance and optimal medical management, implantable cardioverter-defibrillators, and a revised approach to transplantation timing, such that overall salvage is maximized while allocation of scarce organs is optimized.