Prognosis of adverse outcomes in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction and acute ischemic kidney injury

Abstract

Abstract Background The category of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) remains in the focus of attention of cardiologists across the globe due to the high rates of hospital and long-term mortality. Acute ischemic kidney injury represents one of the most serious complications of STEMI, due to its highly negative impact on the disease prognosis. Therefore, it is critical for a clinician to identify STEMI and acute ischemic kidney injury patients who are at high risk of developing adverse outcomes. Purpose To identify key prognostic markers of adverse outcomes in patients with STEMI and acute ischemic kidney injury. Methods The study included 173 patients (ages 37–75), who were admitted to the intensive care unit with STEMI. Two groups of patients were identified based on their renal function: a group with STEMI and acute ischemic kidney injury (main group, n=111) and a group with STEMI and normal renal function (comparison group, n=62). Acute ischemic kidney injury diagnosis was confirmed on the basis of KDIGO (2012) recommendations - when patients with MI were hospitalized with creatinine level increased by up to ≥1.5 times as compared to baseline creatinine level before hospital admission. A critical condition for confirming the diagnosis was absence of chronic kidney disease and urinary tract disorders in patients' medical history. To identify risk factors of adverse outcomes, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used. Results Regression analysis was performed in order to build a predictive model for the development of adverse outcomes (death from cardiovascular causes, recurrent MI, unstable angina within 12 months). The analysis was based on the results of clinical, laboratory and instrumental evaluations of the focus patients. The derived prognostic model included the following features: age, level of the N-terminal fragment of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP), C-reactive protein level, creatinine level and local contractility index. A mathematical model for predicting the likelihood of adverse outcomes was developed on the basis of regression analysis data. ROC analysis including building of a ROC curve was conducted in order to test the quality of the model; the AUC was 0,996. The resulting model achieved 90,6% sensitivity, 100% specificity and 97,1% positive predictive value. Conclusion The following prognostic markers of adverse outcomes development in patients with STEMI and acute ischemic kidney injury were identified as most critical: age, NT-pro-BNP level, C-reactive protein level, creatinine level and local contractility index based on echocardiography results. The mathematical model for predicting the likelihood of adverse outcomes, developed as a result of the study, will become a powerful clinical tool for improving the survival rate in patients with STEMI and acute ischemic kidney injury. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.