PrOgnosis in Pulmonary Embolism (PoPE): 30-Day mortality risk score based on five admission parameters

Abstract

Introduction and objectiveSeveral scoring systems have been developed for risk stratification in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and its simplified version (sPESI) are among the most used, however the high number of variables hinder its application. Our aim was to derive an easy-to-perform score based on simple parameters obtained at admission to predict 30-day mortality in acute PE patients. MethodsRetrospective study in 1115 patients with acute PE from two institutions (derivation cohort n=835, validation cohort n=280). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at 30 days. Statistically and clinically relevant variables were selected for multivariable Cox regression analysis. We derived and validated a multivariable risk score model and compared to other established scores. ResultsThe primary endpoint occurred in 207 patients (18.6%). Our model included five variables weighted as follows: modified shock index ≥1.1 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.57, 1.68–3.92, p<0.001), active cancer (HR 2.27, 1.45–3.56, p<0.001), altered mental state (HR 3.82, 2.50–5.83, p<0.001), serum lactate concentration ≥2.50 mmol/L (HR 5.01, 3.25–7.72, p<0.001), and age ≥80 years (HR 1.95, 1.26–3.03, p=0.003). The prognostic ability was superior to other scores (area under curve [AUC] 0.83 [0.79–0.87] vs 0.72 [0.67–0.79] in PESI and 0.70 [0.62–0.75] in sPESI, p<0.001) and its performance in the validation cohort was deemed good (73 events in 280 patients, 26.1%, AUC=0.76, 0.71–0.82, p<0.0001) and superior to other scores (p<0.05). ConclusionsThe PoPE score (https://tinyurl.com/ybsnka8s) is an easy tool with superior performance to predict early mortality in patients admitted for PE with non-high-risk PE.