Prognosis and risk factors for the development of pulmonary metastases after preoperative chemoradiotherapy and radical resection in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer

Abstract

Although preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision (TME) is currently considered effective for treating locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), a proportion of patients develop postoperative pulmonary metastases. The current study aimed to assess the prognostic characteristics and risk factors for the development of rectal cancer pulmonary metastases after CRT and radical resection. We retrospectively analyzed data collected on 544 consecutive patients who were diagnosed with LARC and underwent preoperative CRT followed by tumor radical resection between December 2003 and June 2014. Overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and pulmonary metastasis rates were calculated and compared among the subgroups, and risk factors for pulmonary metastases were identified by Cox models. A total of 61 (11.2%) patients developed pulmonary metastases postoperatively, 45 of whom (73.8%) developed the condition in the first 24 months. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year pulmonary metastasis rates were 6.7%, 10.4%, and 11.7%, respectively. Compared with the disease-free group, the pulmonary metastases group had a significantly lower proportion of downstaging and pathological complete regression (pCR) rate and a significantly higher proportion of low rectum tumor. In multivariate analysis, a distance of the tumor ≤5 cm from the anal verge [hazard ratio (HR), 1.394; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.211-3.736; P=0.003] was identified as an independent negative predictor of the 3-year pulmonary metastasis rate, and N0 stage (HR, 0.490; 95% CI, 0.261-0.919; P=0.026) and TNM downstaging (HR, 0.514; 95% CI, 0.265-0.997; P=0.049) were identified as independent positive predictors of the 3-year pulmonary metastasis rate. Pulmonary metastases warranted a more intensive follow-up in patients with low rectal cancer, lymph node metastases and poor response after preoperative CRT and radical tumor resection.