Abstract
BackgroundIncreasing evidence of cure for some neoplasms has emerged in recent years. The study aimed to estimate population‐based indicators of cancer cure.MethodsInformation on more than half a million cancer patients aged 15‐74 years collected by population‐based Italian cancer registries and mixture cure models were used to estimate the life expectancy of fatal tumors (LEFT), proportions of patients with similar death rates of the general population (cure fraction), and time to reach 5‐year conditional relative survival (CRS) >90% or 95% (time to cure).ResultsBetween 1990 and 2000, the median LEFT increased >1 year for breast (from 8.1 to 9.4 years) and prostate cancers (from 5.2 to 7.4 years). Median LEFT in 1990 was >5 years for testicular cancers (5.8) and Hodgkin lymphoma (6.3) below 45 years of age. In both sexes, it was ≤0.5 years for pancreatic cancers and NHL in 1990 and in 2000. The cure fraction showed a 10% increase between 1990 and 2000. It was 95% for thyroid cancer in women, 94% for testis, 75% for prostate, 67% for breast cancers, and <20% for liver, lung, and pancreatic cancers. Time to 5‐year CRS >95% was <10 years for testis, thyroid, colon cancers, and melanoma. For breast and prostate cancers, the 5‐year CRS >90% was reached in <10 years but a small excess remained for >15 years.ConclusionsThe study findings confirmed that several cancer types are curable. Became aware of the possibility of cancer cure has relevant clinical and social impacts.
Highlights
The number of people living after a cancer diagnosis showed an approximately 3% annual increase in the USA, Italy, and UK.[1,2,3] This trend is mainly powered by the increasing number of new diagnoses because of population aging, and improved survival associated with advanced treatments and early diagnosis
Information on more than half a million cancer patients aged 15‐74 years collected by population‐based Italian cancer registries and mixture cure models were used to estimate the life expectancy of fatal tumors (LEFT), proportions of patients with similar death rates of the general population, and time to reach 5‐year conditional relative survival (CRS) >90% or 95%
A limited increase was estimated for stomach, colon, gallbladder, pancreas, lung, cervix and corpus uteri, brain, thyroid cancers and small lymphocytic lymphoma/chronic lymphocytic leukemia (SLL/CLL)
Summary
The number of people living after a cancer diagnosis showed an approximately 3% annual increase in the USA, Italy, and UK.[1,2,3] This trend is mainly powered by the increasing number of new diagnoses because of population aging, and improved survival associated with advanced treatments and early diagnosis. The aim of the present study was to provide reliable and updated estimates for Italian patients of three indicators that are still lacking in current cancer statistics,[11,12] that is, long‐ term survival and cure, according to cancer type, sex, and age These indicators are meant to provide helpful information to public health operators in treatment evaluation, to oncologists in planning patients’ follow‐up,[13,14,15] to policy makers for an evidence‐based planning of financial resources allocation, and, most of all, they could be of special interest to the increasing number of people living after a cancer diagnosis.[1,16]. The awareness of the possibility of cancer cure has relevant clinical and social impacts
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