Abstract
The topic is intentionally controversial. Prices on a number of food types used for biofuel have doubled in last couple of years. In the same time oil price is soaring. Many factors are contributing to the rise of food prices: the biggest is escalating demand. In recent years the economies of the world developing countries have been growing about 7 percent a year; other factors are droughts, new deregulation in agricultural policies (less intervention lowering stock levels), US dollar weakness benefiting commodity prices as safe haven asset and increase production costs like energy inputs. The explanation of the increases of oils prices are very close: the growth of new developing countries, political instability in fuel exporting countries, the loss of faith in US currency, the low investments in prospecting and refining of fuel. The use of renewable biofuels in lieu of fuel to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase energy security. Brazil produces 5 billions gal (19 millions hL) of sugarcane ethanol, enough to supply 45% of its transportation fuel demands. This production needs 6 millions hectares on a total of 400 millions ha for farming. In EU the proportion area devoted to biofuels is 1%. In US, at the same time substantial price rises for maize, the main raw material for the US ethanol. The expected reduction in US maize exports would weigh heavily on the already tight supply on international grain market. In any event, even if maize yields were to achieve the require increase, the United States might have to limit exports in order to achieve its ambitious biofuels targets. The competition between food uses and biofuels is depending of the speed of development of second generation cellulosic and biomass based biofuels and of the purpose of US authorities to improve the level of grains stocks as corn, wheat and soya.
Highlights
Je me propose d’apporter quelques éclairages sur les points de recouvrement entre l’agriculture, l’alimentaire et le monde énergétique
In recent years the economies of the world developing countries have been growing about 7 percent a year; other factors are droughts, new deregulation in agricultural policies, US dollar weakness benefiting commodity prices as safe haven asset and increase production costs like energy inputs
In recent years the economies of the world developing countries have been growing about 7 percent a year; other factors are droughts, new deregulation in agricultural policies (less intervention lowering stock levels), US dollar weakness benefiting commodity prices as safe haven asset and increase production costs like energy inputs
Summary
L’augmentation de la demande de produits alimentaires est bien la première raison de la hausse des coûts des productions végétales. Il n’y a donc pas de raison de fond à la hausse des produits énergétiques si ce n’est qu’ils relèvent de politiques de long terme alors qu’à l’heure actuelle les opérateurs financiers se déterminent dans le monde entier sur des politiques de court terme. Ils permettent de diversifier les approvisionnements et indirectement de diminuer la pression sur la ressource pétrolière, raison également importante pour laquelle un certain nombre de pays se sont lancés dans leur production – les États-Unis, le Brésil, la Chine, l’Inde, l’Union européenne. Les surfaces nécessaires à une substitution significative de carburants fossiles sont hors de portée : s’il fallait se fonder sur les productions végétales pour couvrir la demande mondiale en carburants d’ici 2050, la totalité des surfaces agricoles utiles n’y suffirait pas. Avec une consommation énergétique mondiale du secteur des transports de 1,6 milliard de tonnes d’équivalent pétrole (TEP), les 44 millions de TEP apportés par les biocarburants ne représentent au mieux que 3 % du problème énergétique (figure 1) !
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