Production variability in apple crops

Abstract

The problem of year-to-year variation in English apple crops was studied for the cultivar ‘Cox's Orange Pippin’ by analyzing data collected from similarly-managed commercial blocks of trees. In the period 1971–1975 yields, in each block of trees, moved in the same direction each successive year. In low-average yield years the variation in yield tended to be as extensive as in high-average yield years. Over the period studied, no relationships between climatic factors during the blossoming-period and subsequent yield could be determined. The most important factor linked with low-average yield was found to be above-normal temperatures in the pre-blossom stage. It was postulated that in order for a tree to carry a crop to its full potential, a decisive vernal temperature impulse is needed. If this dormancy break does not occur, because of above-normal temperatures, a full crop cannot be carried, even though subsequent weather conditions are optimum. Yield failures are attributed to some hormonal or other physiological imbalance occurring due to the lack of the normal decisive vernal dormancy break. It was shown that the alternate-year bearing pattern evident in apple crops in the United Kingdom, The Netherlands and Belgium between the years 1971 and 1975 could be explained by this hypothesis.