Production, Sustainability and Fish Trade Prospect of India by Using Markov Chain Analysis

Abstract

The paper attempts to analyze fish production and the direction of trade. Data for the analysis was taken from a period of 10 years (2011- 2021) from the Ministry of Commerce & Industry and FAO. To examine the type and extent of increase in the fish area, production, and productivity throughout the course of the year for several countries, including China, Vietnam, the United States, Norway, and India, descriptive statistics and the sustainability index were utilized. Markov chain analysis employing linear programming was then applied to determine transition probabilities in fish trade. The fish export markets were the USA, China, Japan, Thailand, Taiwan, Kuwait, Hong Kong, and others. The fish export markets were categorized as stable markets (China, USA, Taiwan, Thailand, and Hong Kong) and unstable markets (Japan and Kuwait) based on the magnitude of transition probabilities. Though the country has a good potential for export of fish. India must therefore give rising output more consideration, supported by measures that encourage exports. In addition, initiatives must be made to develop a new market and broaden the trade area to include other significant, global markets.